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Getting Started with Predictive Alpha by TradeSmith

Disclaimer:
The features and tools demonstrated in this video reflect the TradeSmith platform as of the recording date. Please note that our software is continuously updated to enhance your experience. The current site may appear differently.



Hi folks! Marina Stroud here. I am your Product Education Lead.  

  

I’m excited to guide you through one of the most powerful tools in your investment toolkit—the Screener tool. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, mastering this tool will allow you to filter through thousands of stocks based on criteria that are most important to you. Imagine the time you will save by eliminating stocks that do not meet your predefined criteria.  

Let's dive right in.  

To begin, navigate to the Invest page at the top navigational header. Once there, click the Screener tab.  

 

The Screener tool homepage will display the most common category filters used by our members. You can use these preferences or add additional filters by clicking the Add Filter button. You can view your pre-saved screeners on the upper right. 

 

 

By default, the top 1000 results are displayed and sorted by market cap in descending order. Adjusting your filter preferences will narrow down your results.    

   

Please remember that the more filters you assign to your screener, the more limited your results will be.    

  

For example, let’s review commonly used TradeSmith indicator filters so you can see how it works.  

  

I will select Health Green Zone and Trend Up to find healthy stocks trending up and moving well within their risk or VQ range. We can also narrow our scope by looking for stocks within the S&P 500 index.  

 

  • Health: Green Zone 
  • Trend: Up 
  • Asset Type: Stock 
  • Markets: S&P 500 (SPX) 

  

Once we add our filter categories and set our preferences, hit the Run Screener button.  

This leaves us with about 134 results. We can continue to refine our search and incorporate the Predictive Alpha filters. 

 

Let’s review the Predictive Alpha filters in more detail. 

  

Again, hit the Add Filter button to locate the Predictive Alpha filters. 

 

 

 The Predictive Alpha filters include: 

 

  • Prime Outlook: Indicates the expected direction of the stock’s price movement based on our projections. Values include very bullish, bullish, neutral, bearish, or very bearish. 
  • Prime Expected Move: A stock’s projected future price move as a percentage, on the prime projection date. 
  • Days to Prime Projection Date: The number of days remaining until the projected price target date. 
  • Prime Historical Directional Accuracy (available to TradeSmith Platinum accounts): Indicates the percentage of times past forecasts correctly predicted the stock’s prime direction on the projected date. 
  • Prime Historical Target Accuracy: Indicates the percentage of times past forecasts hit the predicted stock price before the projected date.    

 

You don’t need to utilize all the Predictive Alpha filters; however, it's important that you understand what each filter means. 

 

Since we are looking for healthy Green Zone stocks that are trending up within the S&P 500, let’s set our “Prime Outlook” to bullish or very bullish. For the “Prime Expected Move,” let’s go with a move of 5% or greater. If you are including the prime expected move of 5% or greater, you don’t need to include the prime outlook. I would use the “Prime Outlook” filter if you didn't have a specific expected move criterion but wanted to ensure the direction was either bullish, bearish, or neutral.   

 

The historical target accuracy rate may be more beneficial to traders, especially depending on the trading style, strategy, and goals. 

 

I will set the target accuracy to be more than 70% as a general guideline; however, you can adjust your parameters. 

 

This leaves us with 12 results we can review. 

 

If we look at our results, you can sort any column alphabetically or numerically. You can grab the horizontal gray bar to scroll to the far right and review additional information. The beauty of this tool is that you can make it your own by adjusting the column headers displayed.  

 

You can edit the default view by clicking the white edit pencil within the active view or hitting the drop-down triangle and creating a new view.  

 

 

  

The order of the column headers can be rearranged by clicking and holding the column header with your left mouse key and dragging it to its preferred location. Don’t forget to hit the Save button if you make any changes.  

  

If you want to save your preset filters, hit the Save button and select “Save as New” from the drop-down menu.  

 

At the top right, you will see your saved screener, so when you come back to the tool, you won’t have to recreate your screener. 

   

Flexibility is key. You can save your results as a new basket. You also have the option to print and export your results, giving you full control over your data. 

That’s all for today's session!  

This demonstration has shown you how to effectively use the Screener tool to tailor your investment strategies. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.  

  

Thank you for joining us, and happy investing!  

  

Looking forward to our next session. Until then, take care and goodbye!