The conviction level corresponds to the Peaks and Valleys Turn Indicator within the Trade Cycles by TradeSmith program.

When you hover over the indicator, a tooltip displays the date range for the turn area along with its associated conviction level, providing insight into the strength or confidence of that particular market signal.

Screenshot taken from the Asset Details page.

Our conviction level indicates the number of individual cycles that agree on the turn area. 

When more individual cycles agree on a turn, the higher its conviction level and the higher the probability that the event will occur.   

Many members ask why the price line doesn’t always match the cycle line. There is a good answer to that. 

The height of the tops and the depths of the lows on a cycle represent conviction, not price. So, when you see a high top indicated by the cycle, the individual cycles that make up the composite agree, indicating a stronger likelihood of the event taking place. 

Note: The conviction level pertains to the turn area (peaks and valleys) only, NOT any other Trade Cycle indicators (Volume-At-Price or Relative Strength Index).

The Stock Screener tool allows you to screen for stocks based on their conviction level. For example, you can scan for stocks with medium, high, or very high conviction levels and incorporate other Trade Cycle filters, such as Days to Cycle Start Date, Cycle Period, and Cycle Turn Area.

• Days to Cycle Start Date: Shows how many days remain until the stock's next projected turn area begins.
• Cycle Period: Duration of the stock's cycle (Composite Cycle, Very Long-term, Long-term, Middle-term, and Short-term)
• Cycle Turn Area: Cycle turning periods (valley and/or peak)
• Cycle Conviction Level: Confidence level in cycle predications (Very High, High, Medium, and Low)

There are also numerous other TradeSmith and other technical and fundamental indicators you can include in your screener.

If you still need further guidance, please email us any questions at [email protected]. You can also contact us toll-free at 1-866-385-2076.