Published July 17, 2026.

TradeSmith Walkthrough – Trade Cycles Decoded: Market Timing with TradeSmith 

Slide 1: Introduction 

Hi everyone! Marina Stroud here. I’m your Senior Product Education Specialist. Thanks for joining me today! 

These monthly Walkthrough webinars will give you hands-on guidance across all TradeSmith products.  

My colleague Kristin Magenst and I host them live to provide you with a real-time learning experience—so whether you’re just starting or looking to fine-tune your skills, you’re in the right place. 

Let’s jump right into today’s topics! 

Slide 2: Today’s Topics 

• What is Trade Cycles by TradeSmith? We’ll break it down and show you how this powerful system can help you time the markets with greater precision. 

• Unlock Key Insights – We'll dive into Trade Cycle indicators and learn how to interpret them like a pro.  

• Trade Cycle Features – We'll review the key features and tools of your Trade Cycles subscription. 
• • Screen for Trade Cycle opportunities 

• Live Q&A 

Before we jump in, let’s quickly go over our usual disclaimer. 

Slide 3: Disclaimer 

Everything we're sharing today—and in future tutorials—is for educational purposes only. We're not licensed financial advisers, so we can't give personal recommendations or tailored advice. Any stocks we look at today are used only as examples to illustrate the tools and concepts we're covering, and we do not recommend that you buy any stocks covered in today's lesson. Please think of us as your friendly tour guides through the world of investing tools! 

📹 And don’t worry if you miss anything. 
I am recording today’s session! You’ll be able to hit replay whenever you like and catch up on anything you missed. 

Awesome—let’s dive in! 

Slide 4: What is Trade Cycles by TradeSmith? 

As long as humans have existed, we have relied on regularly occurring patterns to navigate the world around us. The sun rises, the tides shift, the seasons turn — and, with the same unshakable reliability, my teenage daughter's chores remain undone every single week, a pattern so consistent you could set your watch to it. Just as nature follows repeating patterns, so too does the financial world. 

Trade Cycles by TradeSmith identifies recurring price patterns in the market and integrates them with other key indicators to help forecast upcoming market shifts. By leveraging historical price data, Trade Cycles can highlight seasonal trends and high-probability opportunities—helping you make more informed investment decisions. 

Whether you're looking to fine-tune your trade timing or increase your probability of success, Trade Cycles is an essential tool.  

By aligning your strategy with the natural rhythms of the market, you gain a crucial edge—turning historical patterns into actionable opportunities. 

Go to the website. 

I'm on my TradeSmith Finance Platinum account. Your account may look different than mine depending on your TradeSmith subscriptions.  As a reminder, you will log in to your account via finance.tradesmith.com, no matter which product subscription you hold. 

Let’s start by searching for a ticker symbol. 

I will search for Pro-Dex (PDEX) in the “Search for Ticker” field on the upper right of the site. The site routes you to the Asset Details page, where you can research your new potential trade. At the top of the page, you will see the company name and the latest price information.  

Upcoming earnings are also displayed here. 

Below are your statistic pills, which you can customize. For example, I can see the Health Long-Term, Trend, Risk (VQ%), Sector, Health Short-Term, and Trade Cycle indicators: Cycles Turn Area and Seasonality.  

To customize your statistic pills, click the “Customize Statistics” link. 

Image taken from a Platinum account on Jul. 15, 2026. 

Please keep in mind that the tabs below on your Asset Detail page will depend on your TradeSmith subscription. To view the Trade Cycle indicators in more detail, go to the Trade Cycles tab.  

Within the Annual Pattern subtab, you can review historical price patterns based on the years under review. In this case, we are looking at the last 15 years of historical price data, which gives us plenty to work with. 

Images taken from a Platinum account on Jul. 15, 2026.

The default is 15; however, you can adjust this from the settings. 

You can even analyze price patterns for U.S. Election years and the U.S. Presidential Party. 

On the far right, you can manually select the years you want to review, or set a custom date range at the bottom of the window. 

The graph displays high-probability date ranges for positive and negative average returns (if available). Date ranges highlighted green with an up arrow indicate price gains at that time of the year, and those highlighted red (if any) with a down arrow indicate a high probability that the price will drop. 

The dark blue line is the current price of this stock, and the lighter blue line is the Seasonal Trend line. 

Don't interpret the Seasonal Trend line as a literal prediction of future prices. It highlights historical trends to give context to what may happen, but it does not guarantee future price levels. 

This approach helps us see the big picture and spot patterns in how prices move over time. 

Note: We can analyze seasonal patterns for equities across U.S. markets. Seasonality on foreign stocks and cryptocurrencies (if you have a crypto subscription) is limited. 

Historically, over the past 15 years, we have seen average returns of 9.26% from Aug. 10 to Sept. 2. You can hover your mouse over the seasonal pattern to get more information. You can also click on any seasonal pattern to review its accuracy rate, average return, median return, annualized return, and Optimal RSI (Relative Strength Index), which we will get to in just a moment. 

Image for ticker PDEX taken on a Platinum account on Jul. 15, 2026. 

Note: The median return is the middle value in a set of investment returns arranged from lowest to highest. It gives you a typical return, unaffected by extreme highs or lows.    

You can scroll down to review the Years Under Review and Pattern Returns widgets.   

Image for ticker PDEX taken on a Platinum account on Jul. 15, 2026. 

The Pattern Returns graph provides a visual view of the historical returns for Aug. 9 to Sept. 1, and you can see that 2021 was the worst year, with returns of –16.91%.

Expanding Your Knowledge: Optimal & Seasonal Synergy Patterns 

Now, let’s take things a step further.  

The seasonal pattern for Aug. 10 to Sept. 2 is an “Optimal” pattern. 

Optimal patterns are a step above standard seasonal patterns, with 80% or higher accuracy, historically higher average returns, and at least 15 years of historical data. 

Optimal patterns are always bullish—we have not identified any bearish optimal patterns. 

The optimal seasonal pattern that also aligns with momentum is called “Seasonal Synergy.” 

We use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the momentum indicator, and it is associated with the pattern. For example, a stock might have optimal patterns with different Optimal RSI values. This reflects the unique personality of each stock and recognizes that the stock behaves differently at different times of the year. 

For example, the Optimal RSI value for the Aug. 10 to Sept. 2 pattern is < 47 (below 47); whereas the Optimal RSI value for Apr. 13 to Apr. 29 is < 46 (below 46). 

Image for ticker PDEX taken on a Platinum account on Jul. 15, 2026. 

If the Optimal RSI value for Pro-Dex (PDEX) is below 47 on Aug. 10 when this optimal window begins, the stock qualifies for Seasonal Synergy. 

To recap what we have covered, there are three levels of seasonal patterns: 

• Standard Seasonal Patterns – These are the basic recurring trends, highlighted in green with an up arrow or highlighted in red with a down arrow. 
• Optimal Patterns – A step above; these patterns have specific requirements (at least 80% or above accuracy rate, higher average returns, at least 15 years of historical data). 
• Seasonal Synergy – The strongest pattern, where an optimal pattern also aligns with momentum (Optimal RSI Value). 

Cycles: Peak and Valley Turn Areas 

Our model uses a composite cycle combining multiple shorter- and longer-term cycles. This composite consists of up to four cycles (Short-Term, Middle-Term, Long-Term, and Very Long-Term).  

The composite cycle, which combines the Short-, Middle-, and Long-Term cycles, does not predict future prices. It shows us where we might see potential price changes or turning points. You can also see the turn areas with our blue and orange shaded areas.  

• Blue = Valley turn area (Bottom), where we project prices to move higher.  
• Orange = Peak turn area (Top), where we project prices to move lower. 

Images for ticker PDEX taken on a Platinum account on Jul. 17, 2026. 

The Seasonality and Cycle graphs don’t always line up; however, in our Screener tool, I will show you how you can create a simple screener with both indicators. 

What's the difference between Seasonality and Cycles? 

Seasonality looks at historical price patterns to find high-probability windows for holding an asset. By studying how a security has performed during specific calendar periods in the past, it gives you an average historical return for holding it during that window — so in practice, you'd enter at the start of the window and exit at the end, or sooner if the trade already hits its typical historical return. 

Cycles, on the other hand, are about a security's natural oscillation. Even when a stock is in an overall uptrend (or downtrend), it doesn't move in a straight line — it still swings up and down within that trend. Cycle’s data updates weekly and tells you where in that oscillation the stock currently sits: is it near a peak (likely to pull back) or near a valley (likely to stage a continuation)? 

This makes cycles a timing tool. Rather than looking at the big picture alone, it helps you avoid buying right before a drop or selling right before a rise — instead, you can aim to buy in a valley rather than a peak, which can offer a better price and a higher chance of catching the start of the next leg up. 

Put together: Seasonality tells you when (which calendar window) tends to produce strong historical returns. Cycles tell you where the stock currently is in its natural up-and-down rhythm within its broader trend. Used together, you could look for a stock entering a bullish seasonal window while it's also sitting in a cyclical valley — stacking both signals for a potentially stronger entry point. 

Worth noting: this is a framework for understanding these concepts, not financial advice — past performance doesn't guarantee future results. 

Slide 5: Key Trade Cycles Features. 

💼Portfolio Synchronization: To learn more, click here. 

Trade Cycles Model Portfolios: 

Model Portfolios are automated portfolios built around our products and indicators, so you can follow one that aligns with your strategy. Each portfolio comes with its own clearly defined entry and exit criteria, along with the methodology behind it—giving you a transparent, rules-based way to track and follow the approach. 

To access your Trade Cycles Model Portfolios, go to the Model Portfolios tab under My Portfolios. 

On the Model Portfolio tab window, you will see the Overview and Portfolios subtabs.  

The Overview tab displays your available Model Portfolios, including a description of each, the active holdings, and their portfolio performance relative to the S&P 500. 

Seasonal Edge leverages a breakthrough new way to pinpoint dates on the calendar when certain stocks tend to shoot up — year after year. It's an automated system that combines calendar seasonality with momentum signals for S&P 500 stocks. The two Seasonal Edge Model Portfolios include: Seasonal Edge Stocks and Seasonal Edge Options. 

Beyond historical performance at specific times of year, Seasonal Edge uses a selective multi-step process to identify only the highest-quality opportunities.  

To qualify, a trade must meet all the following criteria: 

• Gains 80% of the time or more during the past 15 years 
• Average returns of at least 4% 
• Passes our Relative Strength Index (RSI) condition tests — specifically, the stock's RSI must be below the Optimal threshold for the trade at the previous close 
• Has yet to reach the Green Zone on our Short-Term Health indicator — the stock should still be in the Yellow Zone or even the Red Zone 

Note: Even a seasonality window with 100% historical accuracy won't qualify as Optimal if it fails to meet these other conditions — that's by design. Together, the RSI and Short-Term Health checks confirm that conditions are favorable for a strong rebound during one of our bullish seasonal windows, rather than adding a position that's already run its course. 

This selectivity leaves a smaller pool of qualifying windows and fewer trades each year, but it ensures your Seasonal Edge trades have the highest possible success rate. As the stock rebounds, the goal is a strong enough bounce to hit your profit target — the Trigger Price — typically set at 8%–12% gains. 

Along with the Seasonal Edge system, you also have access to the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio. 

Unlike Seasonal Edge, which uses specific optimal windows that trigger Seasonal Synergy for entry, Seasonal Advantage does not. Seasonal Advantage has a ranked list of the best seasonality patterns in the S&P 500 for the next roughly 30 days (until the next rotation), and it builds a five-stock portfolio of stocks that are not correlated. Sometimes two, three, or four stocks carry over; other times, all five are sold and replaced. Updates always happen on the ninth trading day of each month. 

What is the difference between Seasonal Advantage and Seasonal Edge? 
 

Seasonal Edge is a set of trades that are managed individually in TradeSmith, whereas Seasonal Advantage will be managed as a portfolio of (exactly) five stocks. 

• In Seasonal Advantage, if a stock remains in the top five, it will still be held in that model portfolio. The goal is to provide a long-term rotation strategy for seasonality traders. 
• In Seasonal Edge, stocks are removed from the list when their seasonal window ends. The goal is to find optimal seasonality trades throughout the year. 

The Navellier Edge is an automated model portfolio that combines two proven approaches: Louis Navellier's stock grading methodology and the seasonal trading windows identified by the Seasonal Edge system. 

Navellier's methodology identifies stocks with the greatest potential to outperform the market by focusing on three key factors: 

• Strong fundamentals 
• Strong buying activity 
• Improving ratings trends 

By layering these stock grades on top of Seasonal Edge's calendar-based windows, the Navellier Edge aims to combine quality stock selection with well-timed entry points. 

To select the model portfolios you wish to display, click the Portfolios button on the upper right. From the drop-down menu, you can remove any portfolios you are not following. 

It is also important to ensure your notifications are turned on if you are following any model portfolios. This way, you will receive emails when positions are opened or closed, or when alerts trigger. You can also rearrange the order in which your model portfolios are displayed by clicking and dragging the portfolio card by the vertical dots icon. 

To view open, closed, or all positions, go to the Portfolios tab. 

Image as of Jul. 15, 2026. 

Let’s go back to your list of key features and tools. 

🔎 Stock Screener Tool: Scan for new investment opportunities 

The Stock Screener tool allows you to scan opportunities based on the criteria that are most important to you.  

I am going to show you how you can incorporate the Trade Cycles filters to find new potential trades. 

To access the Screener tool, go to the Screener tab under Invest. 

You can set your preferences to the filters displayed by default, and you can add additional filters by clicking the Add Filter button. 

Here are filters you can use to find bullish short-term trades with a focus on Trade Cycles: 

• Asset Type: Stock 
• Health (Short-Term): Green Zone 
• Country of Exchange: United States 
• Cycle Turn Area: Valley 
• Cycle Conviction Level: High and Very High 
• Optimal Seasonal Pattern Only: Yes 
• Days to Seasonality Pattern Start Date: Less than 30 

I choose the Green Zone to find stocks with strong momentum, which is useful if you want to ride an established trend. You can also include the Red or Yellow Zone to find oversold stocks, which is useful if you want to catch a potential rebound.  

You can also incorporate your favorite newsletter publishers. Once you have your filters and parameters set, hit the Run Screener button. 

Results as of Jul. 17, 2026. 

You can review your results and click on any ticker to go to the Asset Details page, where we initially viewed Pro-Dex (PDEX). You can save your results as a new basket or portfolio by selecting the positions and entering a basket or portfolio name. 

Image as of Jul. 17, 2026. 

To save your Screener filters, click the Save button and select “Save as new.” Here you can name your screener, and when you come back to the tool, it will be saved under your “Pre-saved Screeners” drop-down menu. 

Next up is the Calendar.  

📆 Market and Trade Cycles Calendar: Review upcoming corporate actions, seasonality, and cycles. 

The Market Calendar allows you to view upcoming corporate events, such as earnings, dividends, and expiring options, for your portfolios, watchlists, newsletters, and other sources. 

Image as of Jul. 15, 2026. 

The Trade Cycles Calendar identifies seasonal patterns for your model portfolios, baskets, and portfolios over 3 to 6 months. The system will mark potential entries on the calendar as “E” bubbles.  

Optimal patterns are marked with the “O” icon, and optimal patterns that also meet Seasonal Synergy are marked with the “S” icon. 

Image as of Jul. 14, 2026. 

The image above displays the Seasonal Edge Stock portfolio. Broadcom (AVGO) and CBOE Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) are marked with potential entries with “E” bubbles. 

For example, if the optimal seasonal pattern for Broadcom (AVGO) is below its optimal RSI value and is in the Short-Term Health Red or Yellow Zones on Aug. 19, 2026, it triggers Seasonal Synergy and the trade is added to the Seasonal Edge Stock model portfolio. 

You’ll receive a Seasonal Edge Portfolio Trade Alert from our editorial team when a new position is added, giving you all the key details—trade specifics.  

You will also receive an automated alert when the position is added to or removed from the portfolio. This is why it is important to enable your Position Alert Notifications on the Model Portfolios page. 

Finally, let’s look at your newsletters. 

📬 My Services: Link to your newsletters and publications. 

To access your newsletters, go to the My Services page at the top navigational header. 

To access your TradeSmith newsletter site pages go to the Newsletters tab. To access your TradeSmith and our affiliate portfolios, go to the Portfolios tab. 

If you scroll down the Newsletters tab, you can locate the Trade Cycles button. You may also have access to The Seasonality Investor, which is a separate subscription from Trade Cycles. It also identifies stocks with strong seasonal trends using historical market patterns.   

Trade Cycles is our full platform, offering software tools, model portfolios, and publications. Seasonality Investor is an entry-level product that doesn't include all the site tools available in Trade Cycles — it's designed to introduce members to Trade Cycles. 

Senior Analyst William McCanless is the guru for Trade Cycles and Seasonality Investor. He writes special reports and alerts for model portfolios. 

Meet the Analyst 

William is obsessed with studying markets and psychology, giving him an X-ray into why prices move the way they do. 

After apprenticing with multiple proprietary trading firms, futures traders, and former CBOE options market makers, William specializes in identifying repeatable, high-probability cycles backed by decades of historical market data. 

Email William and the editorial team at [email protected]. 

Take some time to explore your Trade Cycles website. Under Portfolios, you'll find another model portfolio — one that pre-dates both Seasonal Edge and Seasonal Advantage. We simply called it the Trade Cycles portfolio. 

These were trade ideas identified by our senior analyst, William McCanless, whenever seasonality, our Cycles tool, and his own technical analysis of a stock's price chart all lined up. 

That portfolio has since retired — but you can still get William's insights through his weekly feature, Watchlist Wednesday. 

Alrighty, folks! That’s a wrap on today’s lesson.  

Before we head out, I want to point out our educational resources and the Trade Cycles Getting Started Series. 

To access your educational resources, click the Support button on the top right of your program site. The main menu provides information on how to contact our Customer Success team and schedule a 30-minute concierge appointment, which is a one-on-one walkthrough with a knowledgeable agent.   

You can also register for and access previously recorded TradeSmith Walkthroughs with Kristin or me, as well as Inside TradeSmith webinars featuring Senior Analyst Mike Burnick.   

At the bottom of the Support menu, you will see three tabs: Main Menu, Product Updates, and Education Center. 

🏠 The Main Menu houses the Customer Success Team contact, concierge scheduling, and links to the TradeSmith Getting Started Series and other webinars. 

📣 The Product Updates provides the latest and greatest feature updates so you can be in the know on all site upgrades. 

📖 The Education Center houses our how-to articles, glossary, tutorials, and webinars. 

If you are new to TradeSmith, please check out our Getting Started Series. 

 Contact Us 

Thank you for joining us! We're honored to support your educational journey. If you have questions, we are here to help.  

We look forward to seeing you in the next round. Until next time, bye! 

Marina Stroud 

Senior Product Education Specialist