Published: July 7, 2026.

Below are definitions for each metric, along with how they differ between buying and selling options.

Breakeven Move: The percentage the stock must move (up or down) from its current price to reach the breakeven price.

• Buying: Reflects how far the stock needs to move in your favor before the trade turns profitable.
• Selling: Reflects the cushion available before the trade starts losing money.

Downside Buffer: The percentage the stock can drop before the trade starts losing money.

• Buying: Typically not applicable, since long options usually lose value as the stock falls.
• Selling: Applies to strategies like selling puts or covered calls, indicating how much room there is before downside losses begin.

Expected Move: An estimate, derived from implied volatility, of how much the underlying is expected to move (up or down) by a certain date, typically expressed as a percentage or price range.

• Buying: Helps gauge whether your price target is realistic within the option's timeframe.
• Selling: Helps assess whether your strikes are positioned outside the range the stock is expected to move.

Probability ITM (In-The-Money): The estimated probability that the option will finish in-the-money at expiration, regardless of overall trade profitability.

• Buying: A higher Probability ITM is generally desirable since you want the option to hold intrinsic value.
• Selling: A higher Probability ITM is generally undesirable since it raises the chance of assignment or exercise against you.

Probability Max Profit: The estimated likelihood that the trade will reach its maximum possible profit by expiration.

• Buying: Often small for long options, since the max profit is theoretically unlimited (calls) or requires a large move (puts).
• Selling: Reflects the likelihood the option expires worthless (or shares are called away, depending on strategy), which is typically when short premium strategies realize max profit.

Probability OTM (Out-of-The-Money): The estimated probability that the option will finish out-of-the-money (worthless) at expiration — the inverse of Probability ITM.

• Buying: A higher Probability OTM means a greater chance the option expires worthless — generally unfavorable.
• Selling: A higher Probability OTM is generally favorable, since the option is more likely to expire worthless, letting you keep the full premium.

Probability Touch: The probability the stock touches the strike or breakeven price at any point before expiration — not just at expiry.

• Buying: Useful for gauging the odds of an early exit opportunity or target price being reached before expiration.
• Selling: Important for risk management, since sellers may face assignment or margin pressure if price touches the short strike, even without finishing there.

Probability Breakeven: The probability the underlying touches the breakeven price at any point before expiration — not just at expiration.

• Buying: Indicates the odds of the stock reaching your breakeven price before expiration, which may matter if you're considering an early exit.
• Selling: Indicates the odds the stock reaches your breakeven price before expiration, which is useful for monitoring risk even if the position could still recover by expiration.

Probability Outside Breakeven: The probability that the underlying expires outside the breakeven(s) at expiration. This is calculated at expiration only, and applies to both single-leg options and spreads — for spreads, both legs are factored into the calculation.

• Buying: Indicates how likely the stock is to finish beyond your breakeven(s) at expiration, making the trade profitable.
• Selling: Indicates how likely the stock is to finish beyond your breakeven(s) at expiration, which would work against the trade (opposite of the buying case, depending on strategy structure).

Name Changes

• If-Assigned Probability → Called Away Probability
• If-Unassigned Probability → Keep Shares Probability
• If-Assigned Max Profit → Called Away Max Profit
• If-Unassigned Max Profit → Keep Shares Max Profit
• If-Assigned Annualized Target ROI → Called Away Annualized Target ROI
• If-Unassigned Annualized Target ROI → Keep Shares Annualized Target ROI

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